KCHS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

27%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.7¢Risks 18.70u

EPSNO 81.3¢Risks 81.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.30u · EPS −81.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	48.1%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	19.3%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	5.8%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.6%	7.4%	0.1%	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	10.9%	2.9%	3.5%	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	12.5%	1.4%	2.9%	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	7.5%	2.9%	0.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	0.0%	4.3%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	4.5%	4.3%	1.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	0.1%	1.9%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	1.6%	5.4%	1.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	1.5%	3.8%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.5%	5.3%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.5%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.4%	2.3%	0.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.5%	1.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.1%	1.3%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.1%	1.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.2%	2.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	3.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	3.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	37%	81.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	80.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	78.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	71.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	74.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	70.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗