KCHS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

27%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.7¢Risks 18.70u

EPSNO 81.3¢Risks 81.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.30u · EPS −81.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:18+00:00	1.6%	0.9%	15.0%	4.3%	11.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	1.6%	0.9%	15.0%	4.3%	11.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	1.6%	0.9%	15.0%	4.3%	11.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	1.6%	0.9%	15.0%	4.3%	11.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	1.6%	0.9%	15.0%	4.3%	11.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	23.6%	0.1%	7.3%	6.0%	28.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	23.6%	0.1%	7.3%	6.0%	28.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	23.6%	0.1%	7.3%	6.0%	28.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	23.6%	0.1%	7.3%	6.0%	28.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	23.6%	0.1%	7.3%	6.0%	28.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	23.6%	0.1%	9.0%	6.0%	28.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	23.6%	0.1%	9.0%	6.0%	28.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	23.6%	0.1%	9.0%	6.0%	28.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	21.3%	0.0%	15.7%	3.3%	37.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:59+00:00	21.3%	0.0%	15.7%	3.3%	37.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	21.3%	0.0%	15.7%	3.3%	37.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	15.7%	3.3%	37.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	15.7%	3.3%	37.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	15.7%	3.3%	37.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	15.7%	3.3%	37.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	37%	81.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	80.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	78.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	71.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	74.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	70.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261022-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗