KCHS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

80%

51%

35%

35%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.4¢Risks 57.40u

EPSNO 42.6¢Risks 42.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.60u · EPS −42.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	—	—	—	77.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	82.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	61.6%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	13.2%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	18.0%	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	24.4%	18.9%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	59.7%	66.4%	9.6%	—	52.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	52.9%	65.7%	39.9%	—	47.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	27.7%	74.9%	42.4%	—	39.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	64.5%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	30.1%	71.2%	43.6%	—	37.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	6.8%	73.0%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	27.2%	72.1%	30.0%	—	36.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	27.4%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	28.4%	61.3%	23.4%	—	40.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	32.6%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	25.9%	65.3%	23.0%	—	39.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	35.2%	62.1%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	29.6%	66.1%	25.5%	26.3%	37.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	—	64.7%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	63.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	75.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	76.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	72.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	71.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	71.6°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗