KCHS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

80%

51%

35%

35%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.4¢Risks 57.40u

EPSNO 42.6¢Risks 42.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.60u · EPS −42.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00	80.2%	25.8%	88.8%	52.8%	50.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	80.2%	20.7%	88.8%	52.8%	50.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	80.2%	20.7%	88.8%	52.8%	50.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	80.2%	20.7%	88.8%	52.8%	50.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	80.2%	20.7%	88.8%	52.8%	50.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	80.2%	20.7%	88.8%	52.8%	50.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	79.0%	20.7%	88.8%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	79.0%	20.7%	88.8%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	79.0%	20.7%	88.8%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	79.0%	20.7%	88.8%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	79.0%	20.7%	88.8%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	79.0%	20.7%	85.2%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	79.0%	20.7%	85.2%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	79.0%	20.7%	85.2%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	77.9%	20.7%	85.2%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	77.9%	20.7%	85.2%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:54+00:00	77.9%	20.7%	85.2%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	77.9%	20.7%	85.2%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	77.9%	20.7%	85.2%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	77.9%	20.7%	84.7%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	77.9%	20.7%	84.7%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	77.9%	20.7%	84.7%	41.1%	48.7%
2026-10-19T07:32:49+00:00	77.7%	20.7%	84.7%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	77.7%	20.7%	84.7%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	77.7%	20.7%	84.7%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	77.7%	20.7%	84.7%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	77.7%	20.7%	84.7%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:43+00:00	77.7%	32.5%	81.9%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	77.7%	32.5%	81.9%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	77.7%	32.5%	81.9%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	77.1%	32.5%	81.9%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	77.1%	32.5%	82.0%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00	77.1%	34.1%	82.0%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	77.1%	34.1%	82.0%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	77.1%	34.1%	82.0%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	77.1%	34.1%	79.0%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	77.1%	34.1%	79.0%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	77.1%	34.1%	79.0%	48.4%	42.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	77.8%	34.1%	79.0%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	77.8%	34.1%	79.0%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	77.8%	34.1%	79.0%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	77.8%	34.1%	79.0%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	77.8%	34.1%	79.0%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	77.8%	34.1%	77.4%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	77.8%	34.1%	77.4%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	77.8%	34.1%	77.4%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	79.0%	34.1%	77.4%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	79.0%	34.1%	77.4%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	79.0%	34.1%	77.4%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:15+00:00	79.0%	34.1%	77.4%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	79.0%	34.1%	77.4%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	79.0%	34.1%	81.2%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	79.0%	34.1%	81.2%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	79.0%	34.1%	81.2%	54.8%	41.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:53+00:00	80.1%	34.1%	81.2%	54.8%	35.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	80.1%	34.1%	81.2%	54.8%	35.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	80.1%	34.1%	81.2%	54.8%	35.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	80.1%	34.1%	81.2%	54.8%	35.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00	80.1%	35.0%	83.0%	50.9%	35.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	80.1%	35.0%	83.0%	50.9%	35.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	80.1%	35.0%	83.0%	50.9%	35.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	80.1%	35.0%	83.0%	50.9%	35.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00	80.2%	35.0%	83.0%	50.9%	35.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	80.2%	35.0%	83.0%	50.9%	35.3%
2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:00	80.2%	35.0%	83.0%	50.9%	35.3%
2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00	80.2%	35.0%	83.0%	50.9%	35.3%
2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00	79.5%	35.0%	79.8%	50.9%	35.3%
2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00	79.5%	35.0%	79.8%	50.9%	35.3%
2026-10-20T18:33:43+00:00	79.5%	35.0%	79.8%	50.9%	35.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	75.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	76.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	72.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	71.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	71.6°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗