KCHS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

67%

39%

38%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.8¢Risks 40.80u

EPSNO 59.2¢Risks 59.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.20u · EPS −59.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	69.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	7.6%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	10.7%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	15.1%	11.1%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	45.8%	52.8%	4.9%	—	38.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	38.5%	51.5%	26.6%	—	33.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	16.4%	61.3%	28.3%	—	25.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	49.2%	—	—	19.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	17.9%	56.4%	28.8%	—	23.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	2.9%	58.1%	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	15.2%	56.6%	17.3%	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	15.2%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	15.6%	43.9%	12.2%	—	24.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	18.4%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	13.4%	47.2%	11.5%	—	23.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	19.6%	43.4%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	15.3%	47.1%	12.6%	13.1%	21.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	45.0%	—	—	15.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	77.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	76.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	72.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	72.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	71.2°F	2.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗