KCHS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

67%

39%

38%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.8¢Risks 40.80u

EPSNO 59.2¢Risks 59.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.20u · EPS −59.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:09+00:00	68.8%	22.2%	80.1%	38.4%	44.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	68.7%	22.2%	80.0%	38.4%	44.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:18+00:00	68.7%	23.1%	80.0%	38.4%	44.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	68.7%	23.1%	80.0%	38.4%	44.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	68.7%	23.1%	80.0%	38.4%	44.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	68.7%	23.1%	82.7%	38.4%	44.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	68.7%	23.1%	82.7%	38.4%	44.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	68.7%	23.1%	82.7%	38.4%	44.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	76.2%	23.1%	82.7%	38.4%	65.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	76.2%	23.1%	82.7%	38.4%	65.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	76.2%	23.1%	82.7%	38.4%	65.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	76.2%	23.1%	82.7%	38.4%	65.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	76.2%	23.1%	82.7%	40.2%	65.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	76.2%	23.1%	86.4%	40.2%	65.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:59+00:00	76.2%	23.1%	86.4%	40.2%	65.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	76.2%	23.1%	86.4%	40.2%	65.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	85.6%	23.1%	86.4%	40.2%	65.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	85.6%	23.1%	86.4%	40.2%	65.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	85.6%	23.1%	86.4%	40.2%	65.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	85.6%	23.1%	86.4%	40.2%	65.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:21+00:00	85.6%	23.1%	86.4%	40.2%	65.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	85.6%	23.1%	83.7%	40.2%	65.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	85.6%	23.1%	83.7%	40.2%	65.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	85.6%	23.1%	83.7%	40.2%	65.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	76.5%	23.1%	83.7%	34.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	76.5%	23.1%	83.7%	34.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00	76.5%	23.1%	83.7%	34.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	76.5%	23.1%	83.7%	34.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	76.5%	23.1%	83.7%	34.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	76.5%	18.6%	85.3%	34.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	76.5%	18.6%	85.3%	34.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	76.5%	18.6%	85.3%	34.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	65.8%	18.6%	85.3%	34.9%	61.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	65.8%	18.7%	85.2%	34.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	65.8%	20.4%	85.2%	34.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	65.8%	20.4%	85.2%	34.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	65.8%	20.4%	77.3%	34.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	65.8%	20.4%	77.3%	34.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	65.8%	20.4%	77.3%	34.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	65.8%	20.4%	77.3%	34.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	63.7%	20.4%	77.3%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	63.7%	20.4%	77.3%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	63.7%	20.4%	77.3%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	63.7%	20.4%	77.3%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	63.7%	20.4%	71.1%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	63.7%	20.4%	71.1%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	63.7%	20.4%	71.1%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	63.7%	20.4%	71.1%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	69.8%	20.4%	71.1%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	69.8%	20.4%	71.1%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	69.8%	20.4%	71.1%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00	69.8%	20.4%	71.1%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	69.8%	20.4%	79.2%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	69.8%	20.4%	79.2%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	69.8%	20.4%	79.2%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	69.8%	20.4%	79.2%	28.2%	42.2%
2026-10-18T08:00:59+00:00	70.0%	20.4%	79.2%	39.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	70.0%	20.4%	79.2%	39.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	70.0%	20.4%	79.2%	39.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	70.0%	20.4%	79.2%	39.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	70.0%	4.9%	76.7%	39.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	70.0%	4.9%	76.7%	39.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	70.0%	4.9%	76.7%	39.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	70.0%	4.9%	76.7%	39.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	67.2%	4.9%	76.7%	39.1%	37.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	77.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	76.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	72.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	72.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	71.2°F	2.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗