KCLE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

47%

27%

24%

20%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.5¢Risks 46.45u

HRESNO 53.5¢Risks 53.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.55u · HRES −53.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	71.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	99.6%	—	—	79.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	93.6%	—	—	83.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	68.2%	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	55.8%	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	99.9%	83.3%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	26.9%	74.8%	70.2%	—	68.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	27.2%	77.4%	—	59.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	21.1%	15.1%	58.3%	—	45.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	33.0%	30.1%	38.2%	—	47.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	39.5%	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	82.7%	24.5%	50.0%	—	40.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	55.1%	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	33.0%	18.4%	22.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	49.1%	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	30.6%	23.7%	26.6%	—	29.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	23.8%	21.7%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	33.9%	30.4%	32.1%	—	42.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	22.6%	27.4%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	40.8%	25.1%	15.7%	—	44.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	43.7%	19.8%	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	43.5%	16.2%	9.0%	25.5%	28.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	45.5%	17.5%	2.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	41.9%	30.0%	10.5%	—	30.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	28.3%	25.3%	11.9%	—	30.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	32.0%	21.7%	15.1%	13.0%	25.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	24.8%	18.2%	10.3%	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	26.2%	17.3%	7.4%	8.4%	30.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	25.3%	16.4%	6.2%	—	30.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	16.3%	19.1%	5.9%	8.3%	31.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	2.2%	6.0%	3.4%	—	12.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	1.6%	7.1%	3.1%	3.1%	6.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.4%	5.3%	5.3%	—	10.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	73%	56.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.5388
NWS forecast	55%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.2970
ICON	47%	54.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2181
National Blend	33%	52.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1076
WeatherNext 2	27%	52.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0718
AIFS Single	24%	51.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0590
IFS HRES	20%	50.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0380

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗