KCLE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

47%

27%

24%

20%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.5¢Risks 46.45u

HRESNO 53.5¢Risks 53.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.55u · HRES −53.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:27:38+00:00	12.5%	86.8%	41.2%	68.8%	54.0%
2026-10-10T23:13:32+00:00	12.5%	86.8%	46.0%	68.8%	54.0%
2026-10-10T23:58:39+00:00	12.5%	86.8%	46.0%	68.8%	54.0%
2026-10-11T00:43:46+00:00	12.5%	86.8%	46.0%	68.8%	54.0%
2026-10-11T01:29:02+00:00	14.9%	86.8%	46.0%	68.8%	54.0%
2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00	14.9%	86.8%	46.0%	68.8%	54.0%
2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00	14.9%	86.8%	46.0%	68.8%	54.0%
2026-10-11T15:11:48+00:00	12.8%	82.3%	30.6%	64.8%	54.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	12.8%	82.3%	30.6%	64.8%	54.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	12.8%	82.3%	30.6%	64.8%	54.0%
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	12.8%	82.3%	33.0%	64.8%	54.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:12+00:00	12.8%	82.3%	33.0%	64.8%	54.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	12.8%	82.3%	33.0%	64.8%	54.0%
2026-10-11T19:43:32+00:00	33.2%	82.3%	33.0%	54.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	33.2%	82.3%	33.0%	54.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00	33.2%	82.3%	33.0%	54.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	33.2%	82.3%	33.0%	54.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00	33.2%	82.3%	33.0%	54.9%	46.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:35+00:00	33.2%	82.3%	51.8%	54.9%	46.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	33.2%	82.3%	51.8%	54.9%	46.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	33.2%	82.3%	51.8%	54.9%	46.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00	54.5%	82.3%	51.8%	54.9%	46.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00	54.5%	82.3%	51.8%	54.9%	46.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	54.5%	82.3%	51.8%	54.9%	46.0%
2026-10-13T04:16:03+00:00	41.9%	79.2%	49.0%	29.6%	88.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	41.9%	79.2%	52.0%	29.6%	88.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	41.9%	79.2%	52.0%	29.6%	88.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	41.9%	79.2%	52.0%	29.6%	88.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	41.9%	79.2%	52.0%	29.6%	88.6%
2026-10-13T08:03:40+00:00	20.5%	79.2%	52.0%	19.5%	46.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	20.5%	79.2%	52.0%	19.5%	46.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	20.5%	79.2%	52.0%	19.5%	46.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	20.5%	79.2%	52.0%	19.5%	46.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:20+00:00	20.5%	70.7%	26.9%	19.5%	46.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	20.5%	70.7%	26.9%	19.5%	46.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	20.5%	70.7%	26.9%	19.5%	46.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	20.5%	70.7%	26.9%	19.5%	46.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	24.3%	70.7%	26.8%	19.5%	46.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	24.3%	73.4%	26.8%	19.5%	46.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	73%	56.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.5388
NWS forecast	55%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.2970
ICON	47%	54.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2181
National Blend	33%	52.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1076
WeatherNext 2	27%	52.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0718
AIFS Single	24%	51.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0590
IFS HRES	20%	50.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0380

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗