KCLE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

88%

72%

53%

38%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.5¢Risks 63.55u

ICONNO 36.5¢Risks 36.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.45u · ICON −36.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	43.5%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	3.9%	79.7%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	29.2%	81.6%	7.7%	—	44.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	37.8%	75.1%	67.7%	—	46.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	45.4%	73.6%	61.3%	—	47.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	63.3%	72.6%	48.4%	—	30.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	0.5%	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	60.7%	76.8%	36.9%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	53.4%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	52.6%	71.6%	24.8%	—	28.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	64.9%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	60.9%	76.3%	62.7%	—	35.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	59.4%	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	58.7%	42.3%	64.3%	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	63.7%	24.1%	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	59.2%	41.8%	51.0%	—	24.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	67.4%	51.1%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.9%	51.1%	53.3%	31.1%	0.0%	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.3%	56.7%	64.3%	0.0%	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	47.7%	61.5%	24.2%	25.1%	22.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	50.0%	61.9%	27.3%	—	24.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	55.0%	74.4%	32.0%	0.0%	23.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	52.6%	78.1%	32.5%	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	52.7%	76.0%	20.0%	31.9%	22.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	74.7%	81.8%	25.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	82.8%	87.0%	37.2%	68.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	66.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	65.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	63.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	38%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗