KCLE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

88%

72%

53%

38%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.5¢Risks 63.55u

ICONNO 36.5¢Risks 36.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.45u · ICON −36.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:29+00:00	74.0%	50.0%	88.2%	78.9%	27.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:28+00:00	74.0%	50.0%	88.2%	78.9%	27.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	74.0%	50.0%	88.2%	78.9%	27.5%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	74.0%	50.0%	88.2%	78.9%	27.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	74.0%	50.0%	88.2%	78.9%	27.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	86.2%	76.6%	91.5%	53.2%	40.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	86.2%	71.5%	91.5%	53.2%	40.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	86.2%	71.5%	91.5%	53.2%	40.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	86.2%	71.5%	91.0%	53.2%	40.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	86.2%	71.5%	91.0%	53.2%	40.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	86.2%	71.5%	91.0%	53.2%	40.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	86.8%	71.5%	91.0%	53.2%	37.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	86.8%	71.5%	91.0%	53.2%	37.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	86.8%	71.5%	91.0%	53.2%	37.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	86.8%	71.5%	91.0%	53.2%	37.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	86.8%	71.5%	91.0%	53.2%	37.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	86.8%	71.5%	87.9%	53.2%	37.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	86.8%	71.5%	87.9%	53.2%	37.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	86.8%	71.5%	87.9%	53.2%	37.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	89.3%	71.5%	87.9%	53.2%	37.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	89.3%	71.5%	87.9%	53.2%	37.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	89.3%	71.5%	87.9%	53.2%	37.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	89.3%	71.5%	87.9%	53.2%	37.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	66.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	65.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	63.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	38%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗