KCLE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 65°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

79%

71%

52%

52%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.3¢Risks 70.30u

ICONNO 29.7¢Risks 29.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.70u · ICON −29.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	37.2%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	2.7%	74.6%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	23.5%	76.5%	5.4%	—	37.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	31.0%	69.0%	60.8%	—	39.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	38.0%	67.0%	53.8%	—	40.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	55.6%	65.5%	40.5%	—	24.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	0.2%	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	52.5%	70.0%	29.3%	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	44.9%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	43.9%	63.7%	18.4%	—	21.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	56.3%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	51.8%	68.6%	53.7%	—	27.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	50.0%	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	49.0%	33.0%	54.9%	—	12.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	54.0%	17.0%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	49.0%	32.1%	40.8%	—	17.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	57.4%	40.6%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	40.3%	42.4%	22.1%	0.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	45.5%	53.4%	0.0%	—	16.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	36.3%	50.0%	16.0%	16.8%	14.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	38.1%	50.0%	18.3%	—	16.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	42.6%	63.4%	21.7%	0.0%	15.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	39.8%	67.5%	21.9%	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	39.4%	64.4%	12.0%	21.0%	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	62.3%	71.2%	15.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	72.0%	77.8%	24.5%	54.3%	19.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	78.7%	78.7%	22.4%	—	11.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	73.7%	81.9%	25.0%	66.8%	27.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	85.0%	89.3%	41.8%	—	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	70.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0121
AIFS Single	79%	69.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0449
IFS HRES	71%	68.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0841
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	52%	64.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2314
ICON	52%	64.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.2343

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261019-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 65°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗