KCLE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 65°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

79%

71%

52%

52%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.3¢Risks 70.30u

ICONNO 29.7¢Risks 29.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.70u · ICON −29.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00	67.9%	41.6%	83.4%	74.1%	24.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	67.9%	54.9%	83.4%	74.1%	24.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:57+00:00	67.9%	54.9%	83.4%	74.1%	24.2%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	74.6%	54.9%	83.4%	74.1%	24.2%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	74.5%	54.9%	83.3%	74.1%	24.3%
2026-10-12T15:27:25+00:00	74.5%	54.9%	83.3%	74.1%	24.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	74.5%	51.9%	83.3%	74.1%	24.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:05+00:00	74.5%	51.9%	86.1%	74.1%	24.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	74.5%	51.9%	86.1%	74.1%	24.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	74.5%	51.9%	86.1%	74.1%	24.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	74.5%	51.9%	86.1%	74.1%	24.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	70.9%	51.9%	86.1%	71.0%	51.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	70.9%	51.9%	86.1%	71.0%	51.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	70.9%	51.9%	86.1%	71.0%	51.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	70.9%	51.9%	86.1%	71.0%	51.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00	70.9%	51.9%	89.0%	71.0%	51.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	70.9%	51.9%	89.0%	71.0%	51.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	70.9%	51.9%	89.0%	71.0%	51.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	70.9%	51.9%	89.0%	71.0%	51.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	78.8%	51.9%	89.0%	71.0%	51.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	78.8%	51.9%	89.0%	71.0%	51.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	78.8%	51.9%	89.0%	71.0%	51.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	70.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0121
AIFS Single	79%	69.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0449
IFS HRES	71%	68.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0841
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	52%	64.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2314
ICON	52%	64.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.2343

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261019-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 65°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗