KCLE / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

71%

69%

67%

30%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 54.0¢Risks 54.00u

AIFSNO 46.0¢Risks 46.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.00u · AIFS −46.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	82.3%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	4.3%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	22.6%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	0.6%	50.7%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	70.8%	29.2%	7.9%	—	30.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	45.6%	88.0%	45.6%	67.0%	33.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	88.8%	—	—	5.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	78%	73.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	67.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	68.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	62.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261026-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗