KCLE / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

71%

69%

67%

30%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 54.0¢Risks 54.00u

AIFSNO 46.0¢Risks 46.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.00u · AIFS −46.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	52.8%	70.2%	75.9%	65.1%	15.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	52.8%	70.2%	75.9%	65.1%	15.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	52.8%	70.2%	75.9%	65.1%	15.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	47.9%	70.2%	75.9%	65.1%	15.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	47.9%	70.2%	76.0%	65.1%	15.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00	47.9%	71.2%	76.0%	65.1%	15.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	47.9%	71.2%	76.0%	65.1%	15.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:18+00:00	47.9%	71.2%	76.0%	65.1%	15.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	47.9%	71.2%	53.1%	65.1%	15.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	47.9%	71.2%	53.1%	65.1%	15.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	47.9%	71.2%	53.1%	65.1%	15.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	64.3%	71.2%	53.1%	66.8%	77.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	64.3%	71.2%	53.1%	66.8%	77.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	64.3%	71.2%	53.1%	66.8%	77.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	64.3%	71.2%	53.1%	66.8%	77.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	64.3%	71.2%	53.1%	66.8%	77.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	64.3%	71.2%	68.8%	66.8%	77.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:00	64.3%	71.2%	68.8%	66.8%	77.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	64.3%	71.2%	68.8%	66.8%	77.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	30.1%	71.2%	68.8%	66.8%	77.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	30.1%	71.2%	68.8%	66.8%	77.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	30.1%	71.2%	68.8%	66.8%	77.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	78%	73.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	67.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	68.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	62.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261026-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗