KCLT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

47%

41%

18%

18%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.4¢Risks 41.40u

HRESNO 58.6¢Risks 58.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.60u · HRES −58.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	33.6%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	1.0%	69.4%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	40.3%	58.4%	6.5%	—	45.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	65.0%	62.3%	55.1%	—	42.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	57.6%	82.1%	46.2%	—	40.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	51.6%	73.9%	15.4%	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	0.0%	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	16.8%	70.0%	4.5%	—	13.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	11.9%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	37.1%	44.8%	10.5%	—	14.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	20.9%	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	25.1%	34.7%	13.4%	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	53.8%	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	18.3%	35.7%	18.3%	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	27.4%	70.1%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	36.9%	53.1%	12.3%	—	14.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	44.7%	39.5%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	43.5%	48.9%	10.9%	0.0%	16.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	52.2%	37.8%	0.0%	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	46.5%	47.7%	23.3%	15.3%	21.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	45.2%	45.2%	16.0%	—	23.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	51.2%	47.5%	10.6%	0.0%	16.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	41.0%	47.4%	10.9%	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	26.2%	42.0%	5.7%	6.1%	7.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	35.0%	47.2%	4.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	37.2%	44.2%	8.9%	12.2%	7.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	35.2%	51.5%	7.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	20.3%	46.8%	3.7%	6.6%	1.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	21.6%	26.7%	6.3%	—	4.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.4199
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	47%	68.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.2237
IFS Ensemble	41%	67.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.1697
ICON	18%	65.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0339
IFS HRES	18%	65.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0324

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗