KCLT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

47%

41%

18%

18%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.4¢Risks 41.40u

HRESNO 58.6¢Risks 58.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.60u · HRES −58.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:51+00:00	65.3%	29.4%	78.0%	75.1%	17.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	65.3%	29.4%	78.0%	75.1%	17.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	65.3%	29.4%	78.0%	75.1%	17.3%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	65.3%	29.4%	78.0%	75.1%	17.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	65.3%	29.4%	78.0%	75.1%	17.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	61.1%	39.4%	75.0%	54.9%	74.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	61.1%	39.4%	75.0%	54.9%	74.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	61.1%	39.4%	75.0%	54.9%	74.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	61.1%	39.4%	75.0%	54.9%	74.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	61.1%	39.4%	75.0%	54.9%	74.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	61.1%	39.4%	75.0%	54.9%	74.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	61.9%	39.4%	75.0%	54.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	61.9%	39.4%	75.0%	54.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	61.9%	39.4%	75.0%	54.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	61.9%	39.4%	75.0%	54.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T10:32:21+00:00	61.9%	39.4%	75.0%	33.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:39+00:00	61.9%	29.1%	59.6%	33.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	61.9%	29.1%	59.6%	33.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	61.9%	29.1%	59.6%	33.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	59.6%	29.1%	59.6%	33.9%	68.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	59.5%	29.1%	59.6%	33.9%	68.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:06+00:00	59.5%	30.9%	59.6%	33.9%	68.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:53+00:00	59.5%	30.9%	59.6%	33.9%	68.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	59.5%	30.9%	59.6%	33.9%	68.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	59.5%	30.9%	57.7%	33.9%	68.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	59.5%	30.9%	57.7%	33.9%	68.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	59.5%	30.9%	57.7%	33.9%	68.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	46.8%	30.9%	57.7%	32.0%	36.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	46.8%	30.9%	57.7%	32.0%	36.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	46.8%	30.9%	57.7%	32.0%	36.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	46.8%	30.9%	57.7%	32.0%	36.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	46.8%	30.9%	57.7%	32.0%	36.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	46.8%	30.9%	65.1%	32.0%	36.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	46.8%	30.9%	65.1%	32.0%	36.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:09+00:00	46.8%	30.9%	65.1%	32.0%	36.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	52.4%	30.9%	65.1%	32.0%	36.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	52.4%	30.9%	65.1%	32.0%	36.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	52.4%	30.9%	65.1%	32.0%	36.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:29+00:00	64.8%	41.2%	39.2%	18.0%	18.4%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	64.8%	41.2%	47.3%	18.0%	18.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	64.8%	41.2%	47.3%	18.0%	18.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	64.8%	41.2%	47.3%	18.0%	18.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.4199
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	47%	68.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.2237
IFS Ensemble	41%	67.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.1697
ICON	18%	65.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0339
IFS HRES	18%	65.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0324

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗