KCLT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

61%

36%

29%

29%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.5¢Risks 53.55u

HRESNO 46.5¢Risks 46.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.45u · HRES −46.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	59.3%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	34.2%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	0.9%	37.4%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	41.6%	1.4%	2.7%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	29.7%	23.7%	10.3%	—	19.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	36.5%	53.0%	55.3%	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	51.6%	27.4%	39.0%	—	16.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.0%	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	48.3%	43.4%	9.7%	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	46.6%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	44.8%	50.9%	2.8%	—	11.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	46.4%	47.3%	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	49.1%	51.8%	12.4%	—	26.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	62.1%	49.0%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	56.8%	55.8%	19.7%	—	35.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	66.5%	49.0%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	60.2%	56.1%	30.3%	0.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	63.5%	52.1%	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	56.5%	51.1%	24.7%	—	30.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	42.2%	46.6%	0.0%	—	26.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	35.2%	52.3%	18.3%	0.0%	20.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	47.6%	41.6%	14.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	46.3%	43.8%	25.6%	17.4%	22.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	46.1%	46.1%	23.8%	—	18.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	39.4%	43.3%	18.2%	12.7%	14.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	41.7%	43.1%	14.7%	—	14.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	44.2%	58.6%	21.2%	15.4%	20.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	64.8%	20.2%	—	13.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	77.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	75.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	73.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	72.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	29%	72.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗