KCLT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

61%

36%

29%

29%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.5¢Risks 53.55u

HRESNO 46.5¢Risks 46.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.45u · HRES −46.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	85.9%	53.1%	81.3%	51.8%	66.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	85.9%	53.1%	84.3%	51.8%	66.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	85.9%	53.1%	84.3%	51.8%	66.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	85.9%	53.1%	84.3%	51.8%	66.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	85.9%	53.1%	84.3%	51.8%	66.6%
2026-10-18T08:00:56+00:00	90.8%	53.1%	84.3%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	90.8%	53.1%	84.3%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	90.8%	53.1%	84.3%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	90.8%	53.1%	84.3%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	90.8%	48.6%	79.9%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	90.8%	48.6%	79.9%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	90.8%	48.6%	79.9%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	90.8%	48.6%	79.9%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	88.1%	48.7%	79.9%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	88.1%	48.7%	79.9%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00	88.1%	42.4%	79.9%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	88.1%	42.4%	79.9%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	88.1%	42.4%	75.1%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:18+00:00	88.1%	42.4%	75.1%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	88.1%	42.4%	75.1%	45.1%	53.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	84.4%	42.4%	75.1%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	84.4%	42.4%	75.1%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	84.4%	42.4%	75.1%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	84.4%	42.4%	75.1%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	84.4%	42.4%	75.1%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	84.4%	42.4%	73.0%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	84.4%	42.4%	73.0%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	84.4%	42.4%	73.0%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	73.0%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	73.0%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	73.0%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	73.0%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:29+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	73.0%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	79.9%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	79.9%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	83.2%	42.4%	79.9%	33.9%	32.7%
2026-10-19T07:32:46+00:00	82.6%	42.4%	79.9%	36.3%	32.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	82.6%	42.4%	79.9%	36.3%	32.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	82.6%	42.4%	79.9%	36.3%	32.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	82.6%	42.4%	79.9%	36.3%	32.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	82.6%	42.4%	79.9%	36.3%	32.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	82.6%	37.5%	72.0%	36.3%	32.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	82.6%	37.5%	72.0%	36.3%	32.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	82.6%	37.5%	72.0%	36.3%	32.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	79.9%	37.5%	72.0%	36.3%	32.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	79.9%	37.5%	72.0%	36.3%	33.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:20+00:00	79.9%	36.3%	72.0%	36.3%	33.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	79.9%	36.3%	72.0%	36.3%	33.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	79.9%	36.3%	72.0%	36.3%	33.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	79.9%	36.3%	62.1%	36.3%	33.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	79.9%	36.3%	62.1%	36.3%	33.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	79.9%	36.3%	62.1%	36.3%	33.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	75.4%	36.3%	62.1%	28.6%	28.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	75.4%	36.3%	62.1%	28.6%	28.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	75.4%	36.3%	62.1%	28.6%	28.6%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	75.4%	36.3%	62.1%	28.6%	28.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	75.4%	36.3%	62.1%	28.6%	28.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	75.4%	36.3%	60.8%	28.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	75.4%	36.3%	60.8%	28.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:36+00:00	75.4%	36.3%	60.8%	28.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	78.5%	36.3%	60.8%	28.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	78.5%	36.3%	60.8%	28.6%	28.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	78.5%	36.3%	60.8%	28.6%	28.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	77.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	75.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	73.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	72.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	29%	72.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗