KCLT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

75%

47%

36%

30%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.6¢Risks 55.60u

ICONNO 44.4¢Risks 44.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.40u · ICON −44.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	15.9%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	14.6%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	62.2%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	0.7%	72.9%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	65.1%	60.4%	26.3%	—	27.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	60.1%	46.4%	31.7%	—	39.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	65.6%	47.7%	26.4%	—	36.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	84.6%	55.6%	19.5%	—	15.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	0.1%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	74.2%	37.7%	36.1%	—	36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	45.7%	42.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	75.2%	43.0%	23.4%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	67.4%	44.6%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.3%	70.3%	45.4%	20.9%	—	23.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	50.0%	40.6%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	55.8%	49.0%	19.7%	—	17.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	61.8%	47.0%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	45.9%	44.9%	10.3%	—	15.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	45.8%	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	52.2%	46.7%	16.9%	—	17.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	44.4%	41.0%	0.0%	—	12.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	35.2%	44.2%	12.1%	0.0%	11.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	38.1%	44.0%	9.7%	—	15.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	42.6%	57.4%	11.8%	13.7%	19.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	57.7%	14.3%	—	14.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	75.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	74.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	72.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	71.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	70.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗