KCLT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

75%

47%

36%

30%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.6¢Risks 55.60u

ICONNO 44.4¢Risks 44.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.40u · ICON −44.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:21+00:00	80.3%	58.2%	88.6%	48.1%	15.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:40+00:00	80.3%	40.7%	81.2%	48.1%	15.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	80.3%	40.7%	81.2%	48.1%	15.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	80.3%	40.7%	81.2%	48.1%	15.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	62.6%	40.7%	81.2%	48.1%	15.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	62.6%	40.7%	81.0%	48.1%	16.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:06+00:00	62.6%	43.0%	81.0%	48.1%	16.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:53+00:00	62.6%	43.0%	81.0%	48.1%	16.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	62.6%	43.0%	81.0%	48.1%	16.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	62.6%	43.0%	78.8%	48.1%	16.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	62.6%	43.0%	78.8%	48.1%	16.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	62.6%	43.0%	78.8%	48.1%	16.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	76.2%	43.0%	78.8%	29.6%	75.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	76.2%	43.0%	78.8%	29.6%	75.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	76.2%	43.0%	78.8%	29.6%	75.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	76.2%	43.0%	78.8%	29.6%	75.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	76.2%	43.0%	78.8%	29.6%	75.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	76.2%	43.0%	84.1%	29.6%	75.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	76.2%	43.0%	84.1%	29.6%	75.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:09+00:00	76.2%	43.0%	84.1%	29.6%	75.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	76.2%	43.0%	84.1%	29.6%	75.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	76.2%	43.0%	84.1%	29.6%	75.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	76.2%	43.0%	84.1%	29.6%	75.3%
2026-10-15T15:33:49+00:00	80.3%	47.3%	79.8%	51.2%	75.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	80.3%	47.3%	79.8%	51.2%	75.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	80.3%	47.3%	80.4%	51.2%	75.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:36+00:00	80.3%	47.3%	80.4%	51.2%	75.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	80.3%	47.3%	80.4%	51.2%	75.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	80.3%	47.3%	80.4%	51.2%	75.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	81.3%	47.3%	80.4%	63.6%	78.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	81.3%	47.3%	80.4%	63.6%	78.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	81.3%	47.3%	80.4%	63.6%	78.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	81.3%	47.3%	80.4%	63.6%	78.9%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	81.3%	47.3%	81.0%	63.6%	78.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	81.3%	47.3%	81.0%	63.6%	78.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	81.3%	47.3%	81.0%	63.6%	78.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	92.9%	47.3%	81.0%	63.6%	78.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:09+00:00	92.9%	47.3%	81.0%	63.6%	78.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	92.9%	47.3%	81.0%	63.6%	78.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	92.9%	47.3%	81.0%	63.6%	78.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	91.8%	41.5%	76.0%	16.2%	90.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	91.8%	41.5%	76.0%	16.2%	90.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	91.8%	41.5%	76.0%	16.2%	90.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	91.8%	41.5%	82.9%	16.2%	90.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	91.8%	41.5%	82.9%	16.2%	90.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	91.8%	41.5%	82.9%	16.2%	90.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:54+00:00	90.2%	41.5%	82.9%	16.2%	83.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	90.2%	41.5%	82.9%	16.2%	83.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	90.2%	41.5%	82.9%	16.2%	83.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	90.2%	41.5%	82.9%	16.2%	83.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	90.2%	41.5%	82.9%	47.9%	83.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:21+00:00	90.2%	41.5%	86.3%	47.9%	83.2%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	90.2%	41.5%	86.3%	47.9%	83.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	90.2%	41.5%	86.3%	47.9%	83.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	90.8%	41.5%	86.3%	47.9%	83.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	90.8%	41.5%	86.3%	47.9%	83.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	90.8%	41.5%	86.3%	47.9%	83.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	90.8%	41.5%	86.3%	47.9%	83.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00	86.2%	73.4%	89.1%	42.9%	83.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	86.2%	73.4%	89.1%	42.9%	83.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	86.2%	73.4%	91.8%	42.9%	83.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	86.2%	73.4%	91.8%	42.9%	83.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	86.2%	73.4%	91.8%	42.9%	83.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	86.2%	73.4%	91.8%	42.9%	83.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	87.6%	73.4%	91.8%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	87.6%	73.4%	91.8%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	87.6%	73.4%	91.8%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	87.6%	73.4%	91.8%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	87.6%	73.4%	89.6%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	87.6%	73.4%	89.6%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	87.6%	73.4%	89.6%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	87.6%	73.4%	89.6%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	86.7%	73.4%	89.6%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	86.7%	73.4%	89.6%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	86.7%	73.4%	89.6%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	86.7%	73.4%	89.6%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	86.7%	73.4%	90.1%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	86.7%	73.4%	90.1%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	86.7%	73.4%	90.1%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	86.7%	73.4%	90.1%	34.5%	79.4%
2026-10-18T08:00:56+00:00	90.1%	73.4%	90.1%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	90.1%	73.4%	90.1%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	90.1%	73.4%	90.1%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	90.1%	73.4%	90.1%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	90.1%	63.0%	90.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	90.1%	63.0%	90.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	90.1%	63.0%	90.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	90.1%	63.0%	90.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	87.0%	62.6%	90.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	87.0%	62.6%	90.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00	87.0%	55.4%	90.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	87.0%	55.4%	90.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	87.0%	55.4%	89.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:18+00:00	87.0%	55.4%	89.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	87.0%	55.4%	89.4%	31.9%	62.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	84.3%	55.4%	89.4%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	84.3%	55.4%	89.4%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	84.3%	55.4%	89.4%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	84.3%	55.4%	89.4%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	84.3%	55.4%	89.4%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	84.3%	55.4%	87.6%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	84.3%	55.4%	87.6%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	84.3%	55.4%	87.6%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	83.2%	55.4%	87.6%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	83.2%	55.4%	87.6%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	83.2%	55.4%	87.6%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	83.2%	55.4%	87.6%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:29+00:00	83.2%	55.4%	87.6%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	83.2%	55.4%	85.0%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	83.2%	55.4%	85.0%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	83.2%	55.4%	85.0%	30.3%	53.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:46+00:00	77.7%	55.4%	85.0%	34.8%	48.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	77.7%	55.4%	85.0%	34.8%	48.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	77.7%	55.4%	85.0%	34.8%	48.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	77.7%	55.4%	85.0%	34.8%	48.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	77.7%	55.4%	85.0%	34.8%	48.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	77.7%	47.3%	77.1%	34.8%	48.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	77.7%	47.3%	77.1%	34.8%	48.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	77.7%	47.3%	77.1%	34.8%	48.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	76.2%	47.3%	77.1%	34.8%	48.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	76.4%	47.3%	77.1%	34.8%	48.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:09+00:00	79.3%	46.0%	70.8%	27.1%	32.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	79.3%	46.0%	70.8%	27.1%	32.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	79.3%	46.0%	75.1%	27.1%	32.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	79.3%	46.0%	75.1%	27.1%	32.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	79.3%	46.0%	75.1%	27.1%	32.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	80.7%	46.0%	75.1%	27.1%	30.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	80.7%	46.0%	75.1%	27.1%	30.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	80.7%	46.0%	75.1%	27.1%	30.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	80.7%	46.0%	75.1%	27.1%	30.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00	80.7%	47.4%	75.4%	36.3%	30.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	80.7%	47.4%	75.4%	36.3%	30.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	80.7%	47.4%	75.4%	36.3%	30.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	80.7%	47.4%	75.4%	36.3%	30.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	80.7%	47.4%	75.4%	36.3%	30.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	80.7%	47.4%	75.4%	36.3%	30.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	75.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	74.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	72.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	71.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	70.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗