KCLT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

88%

82%

60%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.0¢Risks 79.00u

HRESNO 21.0¢Risks 21.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.00u · HRES −21.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	32.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	85.8%	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	66.4%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	5.4%	37.4%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	74.3%	40.9%	10.9%	—	47.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	86.1%	41.3%	28.5%	—	27.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	85.8%	25.1%	59.8%	—	48.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	53.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	82.1%	68.4%	42.1%	—	55.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.7%	1.6%	66.6%	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	70.7%	78.1%	43.4%	—	49.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	61.8%	62.6%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	81.6%	77.9%	40.5%	—	45.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	79.1%	78.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	69.5%	81.6%	31.4%	—	44.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	72.4%	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	76.0%	80.3%	44.2%	—	49.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	76.6%	82.3%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	67.0%	81.7%	43.9%	—	52.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	69.3%	83.7%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	73.6%	85.7%	43.5%	43.5%	54.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	86.5%	0.0%	—	46.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	78.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	77.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	88%	77.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	73.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	72.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗