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KCLT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
98%
AIFS
92%
ICON
88%
EPS
82%
HRES
60%
Consensus
87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 79.0¢Risks 79.00u
VS
HRESNO 21.0¢Risks 21.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.00u · HRES −21.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:13+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T04:41:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T04:41:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:13+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS HRES: 60.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00ICON: 90.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:13+00:00ICON: 90.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00ICON: 90.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00ICON: 90.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00ICON: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:13+00:0095.4%45.0%94.3%60.2%90.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:0095.4%45.0%94.6%60.2%90.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:0095.4%45.0%94.6%60.2%90.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:0095.4%45.0%94.6%60.2%90.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:0096.0%45.0%94.6%60.2%88.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0096.0%45.0%94.6%60.2%88.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:0096.0%45.0%94.6%60.2%88.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0096.0%45.0%94.6%60.2%88.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0096.0%45.0%94.6%60.2%88.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:0096.0%82.4%97.8%60.2%88.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0096.0%82.4%97.8%60.2%88.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0096.0%82.4%97.8%60.2%88.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:0091.5%82.4%97.8%60.2%88.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0091.5%82.4%97.8%60.2%88.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 298%78.8°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single92%77.3°F5.0°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON88%77.8°F6.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble82%73.2°F2.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend77%73.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES60%72.0°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%71.0°F5.2°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗