KCLT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

22%

19%

18%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.8¢Risks 15.85u

HRESNO 84.2¢Risks 84.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.15u · HRES −84.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	51.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	66.4%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	0.5%	23.8%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	1.3%	24.6%	4.5%	—	9.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	7.4%	21.0%	6.2%	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	1.8%	20.0%	15.5%	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	2.2%	8.7%	2.4%	—	3.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.0%	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	1.1%	10.4%	3.8%	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.6%	10.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	2.5%	11.3%	5.2%	8.6%	1.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	12.5%	—	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	28%	68.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	68.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	69.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	68.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	60.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗