KCLT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

22%

19%

18%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.8¢Risks 15.85u

HRESNO 84.2¢Risks 84.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.15u · HRES −84.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	68.1%	46.5%	46.9%	12.0%	14.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	68.1%	46.5%	46.9%	12.0%	14.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	68.1%	46.5%	46.9%	12.0%	14.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	20.7%	46.5%	46.9%	12.0%	14.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	20.7%	46.5%	46.9%	11.9%	14.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00	20.7%	48.8%	46.9%	11.9%	14.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	20.7%	48.8%	46.9%	11.9%	14.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	20.7%	48.8%	24.1%	11.9%	14.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	20.7%	48.8%	24.1%	11.9%	14.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	20.7%	48.8%	24.1%	11.9%	14.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	20.7%	48.8%	24.1%	11.9%	14.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	18.8%	48.8%	24.1%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	18.8%	48.8%	24.1%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	18.8%	48.8%	24.1%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	18.8%	48.8%	24.1%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	18.8%	48.8%	18.9%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	18.8%	48.8%	18.9%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	18.8%	48.8%	18.9%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	18.8%	48.8%	18.9%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	23.8%	48.8%	18.9%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	23.8%	48.8%	18.9%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	23.8%	48.8%	18.9%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	23.8%	48.8%	18.9%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	23.8%	48.8%	20.6%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	23.8%	48.8%	20.6%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	23.8%	48.8%	20.6%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	23.8%	48.8%	20.6%	13.9%	21.1%
2026-10-18T08:00:57+00:00	21.3%	48.8%	20.6%	3.9%	27.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	21.3%	48.8%	20.6%	3.9%	27.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	21.3%	48.8%	20.6%	3.9%	27.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	21.3%	48.8%	20.6%	3.9%	27.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	21.3%	18.7%	18.5%	3.9%	27.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	21.3%	18.7%	18.5%	3.9%	27.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	21.3%	18.7%	18.5%	3.9%	27.9%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	21.3%	18.7%	18.5%	3.9%	27.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	22.4%	19.3%	18.4%	3.9%	27.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	28%	68.3°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	68.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	69.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	68.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	60.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗