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KCLT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 16:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
7%
ICON
4%
AIFS
2%
EPS
2%
HRES
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 4.3¢Risks 1.07u
VS
HRESNO 95.7¢Risks 23.93u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.93u · HRES −23.93u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-09 06:0010-14 18:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.0%————1.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0032.0%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0012.8%————7.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0034.5%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0029.2%————14.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0028.8%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0049.5%————13.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0028.8%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0060.5%————17.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0024.4%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0067.0%————31.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0058.5%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0039.5%————22.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0062.5%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0041.0%————27.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0044.2%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0053.7%————25.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0038.8%—————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0013.2%————12.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0042.2%—17.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0029.9%————5.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0038.6%—0.6%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0016.6%————12.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0042.3%—0.8%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.8%————7.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0022.4%—9.4%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:008.1%————3.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0010.8%—4.6%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0016.0%—23.6%——4.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:005.2%—6.5%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:008.8%0.0%2.9%——1.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.4%—1.5%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%2.7%0.2%—0.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.4%—1.7%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.3%1.8%0.2%—0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.2%———
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%1.5%0.9%—0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.2%—0.4%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.3%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.4%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.3%——0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.3%0.1%0.2%0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.3%——0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 27%72.1°F5.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend7%73.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON4%61.9°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single2%67.8°F5.8°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%72.4°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES1%64.9°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗