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KCLT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 16:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
7%
ICON
4%
AIFS
2%
EPS
2%
HRES
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 4.3¢Risks 1.07u
VS
HRESNO 95.7¢Risks 23.93u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.93u · HRES −23.93u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00IFS HRES: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00IFS HRES: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS HRES: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS HRES: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00IFS HRES: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:0010-17 07:4410-17 11:3210-17 16:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:0022.7%2.7%13.2%1.2%3.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0022.7%2.7%13.2%1.2%3.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:0022.7%2.7%13.2%1.2%3.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0022.7%2.7%13.2%1.2%3.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0022.7%2.7%13.2%1.2%3.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:0022.7%1.6%7.3%1.2%3.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0022.7%1.6%7.3%1.2%3.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0022.7%1.6%7.3%1.2%3.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:002.1%1.8%7.4%1.2%3.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:002.1%1.8%7.4%1.2%3.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 27%72.1°F5.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend7%73.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON4%61.9°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single2%67.8°F5.8°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%72.4°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES1%64.9°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗