KCMH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

81%

49%

49%

30%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

HRESNO 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.60u · HRES −40.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	—	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	18.5%	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	28.5%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	37.2%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	24.4%	43.9%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	67.0%	47.9%	19.9%	—	31.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	71.5%	33.7%	28.5%	—	37.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	74.2%	36.5%	59.1%	—	46.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	72.6%	34.5%	43.6%	—	43.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	1.8%	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	51.7%	28.6%	37.7%	—	44.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	9.5%	28.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	23.4%	34.6%	26.9%	—	34.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	33.4%	30.2%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	25.9%	25.1%	15.4%	—	26.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	34.3%	22.4%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	46.1%	29.6%	15.9%	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	34.4%	41.1%	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	31.2%	34.0%	8.2%	—	17.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	40.6%	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	52.2%	48.9%	10.9%	—	19.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	52.2%	46.6%	0.0%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	40.8%	50.0%	14.0%	0.0%	20.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	61.9%	52.4%	19.9%	—	23.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	68.0%	53.7%	26.6%	55.0%	24.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	52.6%	22.8%	—	16.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	71.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	71.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	49%	67.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	67.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	65.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗