KCMH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

81%

49%

49%

30%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

HRESNO 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.60u · HRES −40.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:15+00:00	86.7%	51.4%	91.1%	48.8%	82.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	86.7%	51.4%	91.1%	48.8%	82.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	86.7%	51.4%	92.4%	48.8%	82.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	86.7%	51.4%	92.4%	48.8%	82.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	86.7%	51.4%	92.4%	48.8%	82.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	86.7%	51.4%	92.4%	48.8%	82.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	92.6%	51.4%	92.4%	60.2%	83.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	92.6%	51.4%	92.4%	60.2%	83.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	92.6%	51.4%	92.4%	60.2%	83.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	92.6%	51.4%	92.4%	60.2%	83.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	92.6%	51.4%	91.5%	60.2%	83.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	92.6%	51.4%	91.5%	60.2%	83.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	92.6%	51.4%	91.5%	60.2%	83.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	89.3%	51.4%	91.5%	60.2%	83.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	89.3%	51.4%	91.5%	60.2%	83.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	89.3%	51.4%	91.5%	60.2%	83.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	89.3%	51.4%	91.5%	60.2%	83.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00	78.0%	44.4%	84.3%	29.5%	38.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	78.0%	44.4%	88.8%	29.5%	38.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	78.0%	44.4%	88.8%	29.5%	38.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	78.0%	44.4%	88.8%	29.5%	38.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:00	78.5%	44.4%	88.8%	30.4%	48.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	78.5%	44.4%	88.8%	30.4%	48.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	78.5%	44.4%	88.8%	30.4%	48.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	78.5%	44.4%	88.8%	30.4%	48.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	78.5%	44.4%	88.8%	30.4%	48.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	78.5%	48.7%	88.4%	30.4%	48.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	78.5%	48.7%	88.4%	30.4%	48.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	78.5%	48.7%	88.4%	30.4%	48.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	80.6%	48.7%	88.4%	30.4%	48.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	80.7%	48.7%	88.4%	30.4%	48.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	71.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	71.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	49%	67.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	67.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	65.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗