KCMH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

78%

42%

38%

37%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

ICONNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.30u · ICON −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	57.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	12.8%	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	76.4%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	4.3%	33.6%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	75.9%	43.0%	31.7%	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	43.4%	45.6%	42.0%	—	42.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	28.3%	38.0%	40.2%	—	46.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	30.1%	46.0%	35.9%	—	38.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	0.9%	34.9%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	19.5%	28.6%	23.2%	—	28.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	14.2%	31.1%	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	24.8%	26.9%	21.4%	—	26.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	35.1%	50.0%	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	20.3%	31.4%	4.8%	—	21.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	35.2%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	44.2%	33.0%	19.7%	—	26.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	36.3%	34.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	30.3%	44.9%	20.4%	—	22.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	43.7%	48.9%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	53.3%	48.9%	30.1%	52.2%	29.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	42.2%	0.0%	—	23.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	70.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	66.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	66.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	37%	66.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗