KCMH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

78%

42%

38%

37%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

ICONNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.30u · ICON −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00	66.1%	36.0%	75.7%	45.2%	34.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	66.1%	36.0%	81.9%	45.2%	34.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	66.1%	36.0%	81.9%	45.2%	34.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	66.1%	36.0%	81.9%	45.2%	34.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:00	67.2%	36.0%	81.9%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	67.2%	36.0%	81.9%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	67.2%	36.0%	81.9%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	67.2%	36.0%	81.9%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	67.2%	36.0%	81.9%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	67.2%	39.5%	82.1%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	67.2%	39.5%	82.1%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	67.2%	39.5%	82.1%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	69.7%	39.5%	82.1%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	69.7%	39.5%	82.2%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00	69.7%	42.1%	82.2%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	69.7%	42.1%	82.2%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	69.7%	42.1%	82.2%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	69.7%	42.1%	79.8%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	69.7%	42.1%	79.8%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	69.7%	42.1%	79.8%	45.5%	51.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	72.9%	42.1%	79.8%	37.7%	37.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	72.9%	42.1%	79.8%	37.7%	37.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	72.9%	42.1%	79.8%	37.7%	37.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	72.9%	42.1%	79.8%	37.7%	37.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	72.9%	42.1%	79.8%	37.7%	37.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	72.9%	42.1%	82.2%	37.7%	37.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	72.9%	42.1%	82.2%	37.7%	37.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	72.9%	42.1%	82.2%	37.7%	37.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	78.1%	42.1%	82.2%	37.7%	37.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	78.1%	42.1%	82.2%	37.7%	37.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	78.1%	42.1%	82.2%	37.7%	37.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	70.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	66.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	66.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	37%	66.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗