KCMH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 7.8¢Risks 3.92u

EPSNO 92.2¢Risks 46.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.08u · EPS −46.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	27.8%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	0.1%	3.8%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	24.1%	5.6%	3.0%	—	6.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	5.1%	5.7%	4.8%	—	4.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	1.8%	3.3%	3.8%	—	5.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	1.7%	4.5%	2.5%	—	2.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	0.0%	2.1%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.6%	1.2%	0.8%	—	1.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	0.3%	1.4%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.7%	0.9%	0.5%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.4%	3.6%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.4%	1.0%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.1%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.8%	0.8%	0.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.9%	0.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.5%	1.4%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.1%	1.6%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.7%	1.3%	0.3%	1.6%	0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.7%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	15%	71.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	71.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	68.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	70.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	67.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261022-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗