KCMH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 7.8¢Risks 3.92u

EPSNO 92.2¢Risks 46.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.08u · EPS −46.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:32:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:52+00:00	61.2%	7.3%	49.3%	8.7%	8.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	61.2%	7.3%	49.3%	8.7%	8.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	61.2%	7.3%	49.3%	8.7%	8.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	61.2%	7.3%	49.3%	8.7%	8.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:09+00:00	61.2%	7.3%	49.3%	8.7%	8.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	61.2%	7.3%	48.4%	8.7%	8.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	61.2%	2.4%	48.4%	8.7%	8.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:24+00:00	61.2%	2.4%	48.4%	8.7%	8.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	57.7%	2.4%	48.4%	9.0%	8.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	57.7%	2.4%	48.4%	9.0%	8.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00	57.7%	2.9%	48.4%	9.0%	8.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	57.7%	2.9%	48.4%	9.0%	8.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	57.7%	2.9%	53.1%	9.0%	8.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	57.7%	2.9%	53.1%	9.0%	8.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	57.7%	2.9%	53.1%	9.0%	8.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	57.7%	2.9%	53.1%	9.0%	8.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	52.1%	2.9%	53.1%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	52.1%	2.9%	53.1%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	52.1%	2.9%	53.1%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	52.1%	2.9%	53.1%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	52.1%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	52.1%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	52.1%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	43.7%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	43.7%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	43.7%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	43.7%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:16+00:00	43.7%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	43.7%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	43.7%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	43.7%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	52.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	53.0%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	22.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	53.0%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	22.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	53.0%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	22.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	53.0%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	22.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	53.0%	2.9%	50.0%	9.8%	22.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	53.0%	0.9%	54.3%	9.8%	22.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	53.0%	0.9%	54.3%	9.8%	22.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	53.0%	0.9%	54.3%	9.8%	22.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:37+00:00	37.6%	0.9%	54.3%	13.1%	22.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	37.7%	0.9%	54.3%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	37.7%	0.9%	54.3%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	37.7%	0.9%	54.3%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	37.7%	0.9%	54.3%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:22+00:00	37.7%	0.9%	58.5%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	37.7%	0.9%	58.5%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	37.7%	0.9%	58.5%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	27.1%	0.9%	58.5%	13.1%	15.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:33+00:00	27.1%	0.9%	58.5%	13.1%	15.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	27.1%	0.9%	58.5%	13.1%	15.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	27.1%	0.9%	58.5%	13.1%	15.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	27.1%	0.9%	58.5%	12.2%	15.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	27.1%	0.9%	48.3%	12.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	27.1%	0.9%	48.3%	12.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	27.1%	0.9%	48.3%	12.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	24.7%	0.9%	48.3%	12.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	24.7%	0.9%	48.3%	12.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	24.7%	0.9%	48.3%	12.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	24.7%	0.9%	48.3%	12.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:00	24.7%	0.9%	48.3%	12.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	24.7%	0.9%	39.0%	12.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	24.7%	0.9%	39.0%	12.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	24.7%	0.9%	39.0%	12.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00	24.7%	0.9%	39.0%	7.3%	9.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	24.7%	0.9%	39.0%	7.3%	9.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	24.7%	0.9%	39.0%	7.3%	9.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	24.7%	0.9%	39.0%	7.3%	9.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	24.7%	0.9%	39.0%	7.3%	9.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	24.7%	0.6%	29.6%	7.3%	9.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	24.7%	0.6%	29.6%	7.3%	9.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	24.7%	0.6%	29.6%	7.3%	9.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	18.2%	0.6%	29.6%	7.3%	9.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	18.2%	0.6%	29.6%	7.3%	9.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:53+00:00	18.2%	0.6%	29.6%	7.3%	9.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	18.2%	0.6%	29.6%	7.3%	9.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	18.2%	0.6%	23.3%	7.3%	9.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	18.2%	0.6%	23.3%	7.3%	9.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	18.2%	0.6%	23.3%	7.3%	9.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	18.2%	0.6%	23.3%	7.3%	9.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	14.7%	0.6%	23.3%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	14.7%	0.6%	23.3%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	14.7%	0.6%	23.3%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	14.7%	0.6%	23.3%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	14.7%	0.6%	16.5%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	14.7%	0.6%	16.5%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	14.7%	0.6%	16.5%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	14.7%	0.6%	16.5%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	14.2%	0.6%	16.5%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	14.2%	0.6%	16.5%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	14.2%	0.6%	16.5%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	14.2%	0.6%	16.5%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	14.2%	0.6%	12.1%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	14.2%	0.6%	12.1%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	14.2%	0.6%	12.1%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	14.2%	0.6%	12.1%	5.0%	6.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	12.9%	0.6%	12.1%	4.1%	2.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	12.9%	0.6%	12.1%	4.1%	2.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	12.9%	0.6%	12.1%	4.1%	2.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	12.9%	0.6%	12.1%	4.1%	2.7%
2026-10-20T15:32:04+00:00	14.9%	0.8%	9.8%	3.7%	1.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	15%	71.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	71.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	68.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	70.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	67.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261022-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗