KCMH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

46%

24%

14%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 26.8¢Risks 26.85u

EPSNO 73.2¢Risks 73.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +73.15u · EPS −73.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	1.2%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	0.3%	12.1%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	9.0%	38.2%	6.7%	—	14.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	5.5%	19.9%	8.7%	—	6.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	1.8%	14.6%	3.0%	—	3.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	11.3%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	6.2%	11.5%	0.8%	—	2.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.0%	5.8%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	4.9%	14.3%	1.8%	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	2.2%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	5.0%	9.4%	1.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	2.8%	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	1.6%	7.6%	1.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	4.8%	7.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	1.9%	6.5%	1.3%	9.8%	0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	5.4%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	4.9%	4.9%	0.6%	—	0.6%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	5.8%	3.3%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	7.7%	—	0.9%	—	1.2%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	6.0%	1.9%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	72.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	71.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	24%	67.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	65.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	67.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗