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KCMH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
47%
AIFS
46%
ICON
24%
HRES
14%
EPS
6%
Consensus
23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 26.8¢Risks 26.85u
VS
EPSNO 73.2¢Risks 73.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +73.15u · EPS −73.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:00AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.5% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.5% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.5% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.5% · 2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS HRES: 18.5% · 2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:00IFS HRES: 18.5% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00IFS HRES: 18.5% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS HRES: 18.5% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00IFS HRES: 14.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00IFS HRES: 14.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:0042.4%14.0%59.3%18.5%38.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:0042.4%14.0%55.5%18.5%38.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:0042.4%14.0%55.5%18.5%38.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:0042.4%14.0%55.5%18.5%38.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:0050.0%14.0%55.5%14.4%24.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:0050.0%14.0%55.5%14.4%24.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:0050.0%14.0%55.5%14.4%24.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:0050.0%14.0%55.5%14.4%24.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0050.0%14.0%55.5%14.4%24.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:0050.0%6.2%47.4%14.4%24.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:0050.0%6.2%47.4%14.4%24.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:0050.0%6.2%47.4%14.4%24.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:0045.6%6.2%47.4%14.8%24.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0045.6%6.3%47.4%14.4%24.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%73.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 247%72.2°F4.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single46%71.9°F5.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON24%67.5°F7.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend23%70.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES14%65.5°F6.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%67.4°F3.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗