KCMH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

75%

50%

47%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.4¢Risks 72.45u

EPSNO 27.6¢Risks 27.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.55u · EPS −27.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	48.0%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	3.0%	56.7%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	16.2%	65.1%	14.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	65.0%	69.6%	33.7%	—	30.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	64.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	56.8%	72.4%	50.0%	—	32.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	67.7%	63.3%	42.1%	—	24.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	0.1%	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	58.3%	65.5%	47.5%	—	14.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	56.8%	72.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	63.7%	73.8%	50.0%	66.2%	28.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	69.0%	—	—	20.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	73.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	71.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	81%	68.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	75%	68.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	65.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗