KCMH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

75%

50%

47%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.4¢Risks 72.45u

EPSNO 27.6¢Risks 27.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.55u · EPS −27.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:32:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:58+00:00	84.5%	39.1%	90.4%	49.4%	74.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00	84.5%	39.1%	93.6%	49.4%	74.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	84.5%	39.1%	93.6%	49.4%	74.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	84.5%	39.1%	93.6%	49.4%	74.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:00	89.5%	39.1%	93.6%	33.9%	79.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	89.5%	39.1%	93.6%	33.9%	79.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	89.5%	39.1%	93.6%	33.9%	79.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	89.5%	39.1%	93.6%	33.9%	79.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	89.5%	39.1%	93.6%	33.9%	79.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	89.5%	39.1%	97.7%	33.9%	79.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	89.5%	39.1%	97.7%	33.9%	79.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	89.5%	39.1%	97.7%	33.9%	79.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	73.4%	39.1%	97.7%	33.9%	79.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	73.5%	39.1%	97.7%	33.9%	79.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00	81.9%	40.6%	97.1%	23.4%	72.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	81.9%	40.6%	97.1%	23.4%	72.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	81.9%	40.6%	96.6%	23.4%	72.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	81.9%	40.6%	96.6%	23.4%	72.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	81.9%	40.6%	96.6%	23.4%	72.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	91.6%	40.6%	96.6%	23.4%	75.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	91.6%	40.6%	96.6%	23.4%	75.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	91.6%	40.6%	96.6%	23.4%	75.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	91.6%	40.6%	96.6%	23.4%	75.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00	91.6%	46.0%	97.9%	50.0%	75.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	91.6%	46.0%	97.9%	50.0%	75.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	91.6%	46.0%	97.9%	50.0%	75.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	91.6%	46.0%	97.9%	50.0%	75.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:19+00:00	91.6%	46.0%	97.9%	50.0%	75.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	91.6%	46.0%	97.9%	50.0%	75.1%
2026-10-20T15:32:04+00:00	91.6%	47.0%	97.9%	50.0%	75.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	73.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	71.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	81%	68.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	75%	68.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	65.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗