KCMH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

82%

81%

49%

41%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.7¢Risks 69.70u

EPSNO 30.3¢Risks 30.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.30u · EPS −30.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	47.0%	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	—	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	82.4%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	5.2%	73.5%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	60.4%	65.7%	36.2%	—	44.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	68.3%	57.3%	26.0%	—	39.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	64.9%	80.0%	39.4%	—	36.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	81.6%	86.9%	53.2%	63.3%	53.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	81.6%	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	83.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	75.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	70.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	81%	71.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	65.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	64.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗