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KCMH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
98%
AIFS
82%
ICON
81%
HRES
49%
EPS
41%
Consensus
77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 69.7¢Risks 69.70u
VS
EPSNO 30.3¢Risks 30.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.30u · EPS −30.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T04:30:58+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00AIFS Single: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 81.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:58+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS HRES: 41.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00ICON: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:58+00:00ICON: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00ICON: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00ICON: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00ICON: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:00ICON: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00ICON: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00ICON: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00ICON: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00ICON: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:58+00:0085.2%46.1%93.9%41.4%72.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:0085.2%46.1%95.6%41.4%72.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:0085.2%46.1%95.6%41.4%72.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0085.2%46.1%95.6%41.4%72.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:16+00:0089.9%46.1%95.6%49.4%81.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0089.9%46.1%95.6%49.4%81.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0089.9%46.1%95.6%49.4%81.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:0089.9%46.1%95.6%49.4%81.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:0089.9%46.1%95.6%49.4%81.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:0089.9%41.3%98.1%49.4%81.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:0089.9%41.3%98.1%49.4%81.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0089.9%41.3%98.1%49.4%81.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:0081.7%41.3%98.1%49.4%81.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0081.8%41.3%98.1%49.4%80.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 298%75.2°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single82%70.4°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON81%71.7°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend77%68.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%66.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES49%65.4°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble41%64.6°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗