KDCA / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

93%

92%

76%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 87.5¢Risks 87.50u

HRESNO 12.5¢Risks 12.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +12.50u · HRES −12.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	—	—	—	90.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	89.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	98.4%	—	—	81.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	33.6%	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	25.4%	46.6%	—	—	71.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	85.9%	94.8%	44.4%	—	77.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	92.4%	93.4%	80.6%	89.7%	—	74.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	95.6%	34.4%	92.2%	75.5%	—	73.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	94.3%	85.1%	23.0%	88.1%	—	57.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	93.8%	10.2%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	75.5%	86.7%	67.0%	—	48.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	18.4%	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	37.9%	92.0%	82.2%	—	62.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	97.5%	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	97.5%	96.1%	94.2%	—	65.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	96.0%	96.8%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	98.1%	98.1%	96.0%	1.4%	71.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	99.0%	98.4%	—	—	83.6%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	99.0%	98.3%	95.6%	—	75.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	94.8%	97.8%	—	—	87.4%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	97.6%	98.4%	95.5%	—	86.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	98.3%	99.0%	2.9%	—	80.2%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	99.3%	99.5%	92.0%	81.0%	83.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	98.7%	99.6%	99.5%	98.1%	—	84.8%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	99.8%	99.6%	99.1%	0.3%	86.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	98.7%	98.7%	99.6%	98.8%	—	93.2%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.7%	99.7%	99.5%	0.3%	94.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.4%	99.9%	99.6%	—	95.0%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.6%	99.9%	99.8%	74.4%	97.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.9%	99.6%	99.8%	—	95.6%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	88.3%	97.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	77.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-21 18:00	0.0000
ICON	98%	75.4°F	4.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	0.0004
IFS Ensemble	93%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.0045
WeatherNext 2	92%	72.9°F	5.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.0056
IFS HRES	76%	69.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-21 12:00	0.0595
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-21 14:00	0.2070
National Blend	54%	66.0°F	5.3°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.2144

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20260925-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗