KDCA / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

93%

92%

76%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 87.5¢Risks 87.50u

HRESNO 12.5¢Risks 12.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +12.50u · HRES −12.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T15:18:41+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.6%	75.3%	89.9%
2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.6%	75.3%	89.9%
2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.6%	75.3%	83.0%
2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.6%	75.3%	83.0%
2026-09-20T18:19:21+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.6%	75.3%	83.0%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.6%	75.3%	83.0%
2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.6%	75.3%	83.0%
2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.6%	75.3%	83.0%
2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.6%	75.3%	83.0%
2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.6%	75.3%	83.0%
2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.6%	69.0%	83.0%
2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.5%	69.0%	83.0%
2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.5%	69.0%	83.0%
2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00	98.9%	92.7%	92.5%	69.0%	83.0%
2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00	99.3%	92.7%	92.5%	69.0%	83.0%
2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00	99.3%	92.7%	92.5%	69.0%	83.0%
2026-09-21T15:25:25+00:00	99.4%	93.3%	92.5%	81.4%	50.0%
2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00	99.4%	93.3%	92.5%	81.4%	50.0%
2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00	99.4%	93.3%	92.5%	81.4%	98.1%
2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00	99.4%	93.3%	92.5%	81.4%	98.1%
2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00	99.4%	93.3%	92.5%	81.4%	98.1%
2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00	99.4%	93.3%	92.5%	81.4%	98.1%
2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00	99.5%	93.3%	92.5%	75.6%	98.1%
2026-09-21T20:41:29+00:00	99.5%	93.3%	92.5%	75.6%	98.1%
2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00	99.5%	93.3%	92.5%	75.6%	98.1%
2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00	99.5%	93.3%	92.5%	75.6%	98.1%
2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00	99.5%	93.3%	92.5%	75.6%	98.1%
2026-09-21T23:41:51+00:00	99.5%	93.3%	92.5%	75.6%	98.1%
2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00	99.5%	93.3%	92.5%	75.6%	98.1%
2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00	99.5%	93.3%	92.5%	75.6%	98.1%
2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00	99.4%	93.3%	92.5%	75.6%	98.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	77.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-21 18:00	0.0000
ICON	98%	75.4°F	4.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	0.0004
IFS Ensemble	93%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.0045
WeatherNext 2	92%	72.9°F	5.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.0056
IFS HRES	76%	69.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-21 12:00	0.0595
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-21 14:00	0.2070
National Blend	54%	66.0°F	5.3°F	2026-09-21 06:00	0.2144

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20260925-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗