KDCA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 10:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

96%

93%

93%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 96.7¢Risks 24.16u

HRESNO 3.3¢Risks 0.84u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +0.84u · HRES −0.84u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	95.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	91.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	89.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	98.0%	—	—	94.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	99.9%	—	—	96.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	98.7%	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	98.8%	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	99.2%	99.3%	—	—	91.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	100.0%	99.8%	82.0%	—	91.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	99.6%	86.9%	—	91.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	72.4%	90.0%	85.4%	—	81.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	93.8%	91.9%	96.1%	—	78.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	76.3%	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	96.6%	92.3%	85.2%	—	74.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	83.8%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	96.2%	81.6%	88.2%	—	73.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	91.5%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	98.8%	90.2%	97.0%	—	82.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	99.9%	98.4%	—	—	97.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	—	99.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	100.0%	96.9%	—	—	98.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	100.0%	99.0%	99.7%	99.9%	99.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	100.0%	98.5%	99.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	100.0%	96.0%	99.0%	—	98.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	100.0%	98.9%	98.4%	—	96.3%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	100.0%	99.5%	98.3%	100.0%	97.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	100.0%	99.3%	98.1%	—	97.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	100.0%	100.0%	98.3%	100.0%	98.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	100.0%	99.9%	99.1%	—	98.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	100.0%	100.0%	98.7%	100.0%	98.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.6%	97.8%	92.5%	96.6%	—	81.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	42.1%	59.4%	50.0%	9.6%	31.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	64.5%	67.6%	50.0%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	>99%	74.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	97%	64.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0011
IFS Ensemble	96%	72.1°F	8.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0013
WeatherNext 2	93%	62.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0044
IFS HRES	93%	63.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0045
NWS forecast	55%	57.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2016
National Blend	44%	56.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.3125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗