KDCA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 10:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

96%

93%

93%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 96.7¢Risks 24.16u

HRESNO 3.3¢Risks 0.84u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +0.84u · HRES −0.84u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T10:32:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:00+00:00	73.3%	94.1%	87.8%	68.7%	82.7%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	73.3%	94.1%	87.8%	68.7%	82.7%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	73.3%	94.1%	86.9%	68.7%	82.7%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	73.3%	94.1%	86.9%	68.7%	82.7%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	73.3%	94.1%	86.9%	68.7%	82.7%
2026-10-12T07:47:44+00:00	81.5%	94.1%	86.9%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:22+00:00	81.5%	94.1%	86.9%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	81.5%	94.1%	86.9%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	81.5%	94.1%	86.9%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	81.5%	94.1%	86.9%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:19+00:00	81.5%	94.1%	91.2%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	81.5%	97.3%	91.2%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	81.5%	97.3%	91.2%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	85.6%	97.3%	91.2%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	85.5%	97.1%	91.1%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T15:26:36+00:00	85.5%	97.1%	91.1%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	85.5%	96.8%	91.1%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	85.5%	96.8%	89.4%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	85.5%	96.8%	89.4%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	85.5%	96.8%	89.4%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	85.5%	96.8%	89.4%	75.6%	96.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	85.5%	96.8%	89.4%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	85.5%	96.8%	89.4%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	85.5%	96.8%	89.4%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	85.5%	96.8%	89.4%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	85.5%	96.8%	91.1%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	85.5%	96.8%	91.1%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	85.5%	96.8%	91.1%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	85.5%	96.8%	91.1%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	88.5%	96.8%	91.1%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	88.5%	96.8%	91.1%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	88.5%	96.8%	91.1%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00	88.5%	96.8%	91.1%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:42+00:00	88.5%	96.8%	91.5%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	88.5%	96.8%	91.5%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00	88.5%	96.8%	91.5%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	88.5%	96.8%	91.5%	64.9%	97.3%
2026-10-13T08:02:37+00:00	86.1%	96.8%	91.5%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	86.1%	96.8%	91.5%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	86.1%	96.8%	91.5%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	86.1%	96.8%	91.5%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	86.1%	96.3%	93.0%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	86.1%	96.3%	93.0%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	86.1%	96.3%	93.0%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	86.1%	96.3%	93.0%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	88.4%	96.3%	93.0%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	88.4%	96.4%	93.0%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	88.4%	96.4%	93.0%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	88.4%	96.4%	93.0%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	88.4%	96.4%	93.7%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	88.4%	96.4%	93.7%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	88.4%	96.4%	93.7%	86.4%	97.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	90.4%	96.4%	93.7%	86.4%	99.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	90.4%	96.4%	93.7%	86.4%	99.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	90.4%	96.4%	93.7%	86.4%	99.1%
2026-10-13T21:42:57+00:00	90.4%	96.4%	93.7%	86.4%	99.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	90.4%	96.4%	93.7%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	90.4%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	90.4%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	90.4%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	94.8%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	94.8%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	94.8%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	94.8%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	94.8%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	94.8%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	94.8%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:09+00:00	94.8%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	96.7%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	96.7%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	96.7%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	96.7%	96.4%	93.4%	80.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:08+00:00	96.7%	96.4%	93.4%	93.3%	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	>99%	74.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	97%	64.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0011
IFS Ensemble	96%	72.1°F	8.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0013
WeatherNext 2	93%	62.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0044
IFS HRES	93%	63.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0045
NWS forecast	55%	57.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2016
National Blend	44%	56.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.3125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗