KDCA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

59%

53%

39%

37%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.4¢Risks 60.40u

AIFSNO 39.6¢Risks 39.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.60u · AIFS −39.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	71.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	90.5%	—	—	79.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	99.2%	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	92.6%	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	92.5%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	94.0%	94.8%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	99.5%	97.7%	51.4%	—	68.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	95.9%	58.0%	—	68.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	35.8%	62.7%	53.8%	—	47.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	70.5%	65.5%	77.6%	—	42.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	38.0%	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	78.1%	64.7%	50.0%	—	35.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	46.6%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	75.2%	42.2%	53.5%	—	32.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	59.8%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	86.7%	55.5%	76.3%	—	41.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	97.7%	82.9%	—	—	79.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	99.8%	98.8%	95.6%	—	87.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	99.9%	99.6%	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	100.0%	98.8%	99.0%	—	90.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	100.0%	70.2%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	100.0%	83.1%	91.0%	95.3%	83.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	100.0%	77.7%	84.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	100.0%	61.5%	80.1%	—	74.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	100.0%	78.4%	73.7%	—	60.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	100.0%	84.9%	71.3%	96.5%	63.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	100.0%	80.0%	67.5%	—	62.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	100.0%	94.7%	66.9%	97.8%	68.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	99.9%	91.3%	73.5%	—	67.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	99.9%	93.2%	65.5%	97.5%	64.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	54.5%	32.5%	47.0%	—	16.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.5%	4.1%	2.4%	0.1%	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.5%	5.3%	1.9%	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	69.6°F	8.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0276
ICON	59%	63.1°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2172
WeatherNext 2	53%	61.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2247
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2767
IFS HRES	39%	59.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.3697
AIFS Single	37%	59.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.3919

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗