KDCA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

59%

53%

39%

37%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.4¢Risks 60.40u

AIFSNO 39.6¢Risks 39.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.60u · AIFS −39.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:26:40+00:00	34.6%	85.0%	54.8%	53.8%	97.4%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00	34.6%	85.0%	55.6%	53.8%	97.4%
2026-10-10T23:58:36+00:00	34.6%	85.0%	55.6%	53.8%	97.4%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00	34.6%	85.0%	55.6%	53.8%	97.4%
2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00	35.3%	85.0%	55.6%	53.8%	97.4%
2026-10-11T02:14:09+00:00	35.3%	85.0%	55.6%	53.8%	97.4%
2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:00	35.3%	85.0%	55.6%	53.8%	97.4%
2026-10-11T03:44:32+00:00	35.3%	85.0%	55.6%	53.8%	97.4%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00	35.3%	85.0%	55.6%	53.8%	97.4%
2026-10-11T05:16:00+00:00	35.3%	85.0%	53.2%	53.8%	97.4%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00	35.3%	85.0%	53.2%	53.8%	97.4%
2026-10-11T06:46:22+00:00	35.3%	85.0%	53.2%	53.8%	97.4%
2026-10-11T07:31:34+00:00	39.5%	85.0%	53.2%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	39.5%	85.0%	53.2%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	39.5%	85.0%	53.2%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	39.5%	85.0%	53.2%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00	39.5%	85.0%	53.2%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00	39.5%	83.4%	50.0%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	39.5%	83.4%	50.0%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	39.5%	83.4%	50.0%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T13:35:34+00:00	31.8%	83.4%	50.0%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T14:26:10+00:00	31.2%	83.2%	50.0%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T15:11:24+00:00	31.2%	83.4%	50.0%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	31.2%	83.4%	50.0%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	31.2%	83.4%	50.0%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T17:27:54+00:00	31.2%	83.4%	50.0%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	31.2%	83.4%	51.8%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	31.2%	83.4%	51.8%	61.4%	97.4%
2026-10-11T19:43:27+00:00	33.2%	83.4%	51.8%	39.2%	59.1%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	33.2%	83.4%	51.8%	39.2%	59.1%
2026-10-11T21:13:47+00:00	33.2%	83.4%	51.8%	39.2%	59.1%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	33.2%	83.4%	51.8%	39.2%	59.1%
2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00	33.2%	83.4%	51.8%	39.2%	59.1%
2026-10-11T23:29:24+00:00	33.2%	83.4%	52.6%	39.2%	59.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	33.2%	83.4%	52.6%	39.2%	59.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	33.2%	83.4%	52.6%	39.2%	59.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	37.4%	83.4%	52.6%	39.2%	59.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	37.4%	83.4%	52.6%	39.2%	59.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	37.4%	83.4%	52.6%	39.2%	59.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	69.6°F	8.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0276
ICON	59%	63.1°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2172
WeatherNext 2	53%	61.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2247
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2767
IFS HRES	39%	59.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.3697
AIFS Single	37%	59.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.3919

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗