KDCA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

73%

70%

51%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

ICONNO 25.9¢Risks 25.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.90u · ICON −25.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	73.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	72.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	21.0%	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	56.9%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	37.8%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	5.4%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.2%	74.3%	19.9%	45.8%	—	59.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	88.7%	37.1%	64.3%	—	66.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	80.5%	44.7%	83.5%	—	62.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	89.6%	61.8%	76.4%	—	60.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	27.7%	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	91.3%	85.7%	49.2%	—	57.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	74.0%	89.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	67.8%	86.9%	54.4%	—	24.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	51.8%	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	49.1%	82.2%	23.7%	—	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	50.0%	73.2%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	63.4%	72.1%	35.7%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	60.9%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.9%	67.0%	61.2%	49.0%	—	39.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	71.2%	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	59.7%	35.1%	52.2%	—	20.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	63.3%	44.4%	0.5%	—	34.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	62.6%	54.6%	61.5%	—	44.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	68.5%	59.5%	64.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	74.4%	65.8%	72.4%	23.6%	48.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	67.5%	70.9%	75.2%	—	51.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	68.1%	77.0%	83.5%	23.0%	55.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	77.9%	77.9%	75.8%	66.2%	—	55.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	81.8%	83.7%	68.2%	29.3%	57.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	79.8%	86.4%	68.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	77.4%	78.6%	68.3%	21.4%	43.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	85.0%	85.9%	70.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	64.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0008
AIFS Single	93%	64.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0049
National Blend	75%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
IFS Ensemble	73%	60.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0708
IFS HRES	70%	60.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0870
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
ICON	51%	58.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗