KDCA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

73%

70%

51%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

ICONNO 25.9¢Risks 25.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.90u · ICON −25.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:36+00:00	81.7%	74.8%	96.4%	93.0%	92.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	81.7%	73.1%	96.4%	93.0%	92.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	81.7%	73.1%	95.6%	93.0%	92.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	81.7%	73.1%	95.6%	93.0%	92.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	81.7%	73.1%	95.6%	93.0%	92.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	81.7%	73.1%	95.6%	93.0%	92.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	86.7%	73.1%	95.6%	81.2%	87.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	86.7%	73.1%	95.6%	81.2%	87.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	86.7%	73.1%	95.6%	81.2%	87.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	86.7%	73.1%	95.6%	81.2%	87.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	86.7%	73.1%	95.6%	81.2%	87.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	86.7%	73.1%	95.6%	81.2%	87.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	86.7%	73.1%	95.6%	81.2%	87.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	86.7%	73.1%	95.6%	81.2%	87.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	91.2%	73.1%	95.6%	81.2%	87.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	91.2%	73.1%	95.6%	81.2%	87.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	91.2%	73.1%	95.6%	81.2%	87.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00	91.2%	73.1%	95.6%	81.2%	87.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	91.2%	73.1%	96.4%	81.2%	87.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	91.2%	73.1%	96.4%	81.2%	87.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00	91.2%	73.1%	96.4%	81.2%	87.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	91.2%	73.1%	96.4%	81.2%	87.2%
2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00	82.0%	73.1%	96.4%	74.5%	93.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	82.0%	73.1%	96.4%	74.5%	93.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	82.0%	73.1%	96.4%	74.5%	93.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	82.0%	73.1%	96.4%	74.5%	93.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	82.0%	68.8%	85.4%	74.5%	93.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	82.0%	68.8%	85.4%	74.5%	93.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	82.0%	68.8%	85.4%	74.5%	93.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	82.0%	68.8%	85.4%	74.5%	93.5%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	77.9%	68.8%	85.2%	74.5%	93.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	77.9%	70.3%	85.2%	74.5%	93.5%
2026-10-15T04:01:47+00:00	87.5%	43.5%	89.7%	39.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	87.5%	43.5%	89.7%	39.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	87.5%	43.5%	92.7%	39.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	87.5%	43.5%	92.7%	39.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	87.5%	43.5%	92.7%	39.0%	63.0%
2026-10-15T07:48:55+00:00	88.3%	43.5%	92.7%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	88.3%	43.5%	92.7%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:18+00:00	88.3%	43.5%	92.7%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:03+00:00	88.3%	43.5%	92.7%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	88.3%	43.5%	92.7%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:05+00:00	88.3%	43.5%	93.9%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	88.3%	43.7%	93.9%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:05+00:00	88.3%	43.7%	93.9%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	91.6%	43.7%	93.9%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	91.6%	43.7%	93.9%	44.7%	70.2%
2026-10-16T04:23:51+00:00	87.9%	48.9%	94.9%	59.7%	72.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	87.9%	48.9%	93.5%	59.7%	72.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	87.9%	48.9%	93.5%	59.7%	72.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	87.9%	48.9%	93.5%	59.7%	72.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	87.1%	48.9%	93.5%	59.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	87.1%	48.9%	93.5%	59.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	87.1%	48.9%	93.5%	59.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	87.1%	48.9%	93.5%	59.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	87.1%	48.9%	93.5%	59.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:04+00:00	87.1%	40.5%	90.2%	59.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	87.1%	40.5%	90.2%	59.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	87.1%	40.5%	90.2%	59.7%	56.7%
2026-10-16T13:27:59+00:00	90.8%	40.5%	90.2%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	90.8%	40.5%	90.2%	48.1%	56.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	91.5%	73.4%	95.7%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	91.5%	73.4%	95.7%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	91.5%	73.4%	96.0%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	91.5%	73.4%	96.0%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	91.5%	73.4%	96.0%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	91.5%	73.4%	96.0%	56.4%	59.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	90.2%	73.4%	96.0%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	90.2%	73.4%	96.0%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	90.2%	73.4%	96.0%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	90.2%	73.4%	96.0%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	90.2%	73.4%	96.3%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	90.2%	73.4%	96.3%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	90.2%	73.4%	96.3%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	90.2%	73.4%	96.3%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	93.0%	73.4%	96.3%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	93.0%	73.4%	96.3%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	93.0%	73.4%	96.3%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	93.0%	73.4%	96.3%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	93.0%	73.4%	97.1%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	93.0%	73.4%	97.1%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	93.0%	73.4%	97.1%	70.5%	51.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	93.0%	73.4%	97.1%	70.5%	51.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	64.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0008
AIFS Single	93%	64.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0049
National Blend	75%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
IFS Ensemble	73%	60.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0708
IFS HRES	70%	60.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0870
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
ICON	51%	58.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗