KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≤ 58°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 20.6¢Risks 20.65u

WN2NO 79.3¢Risks 79.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.35u · WN2 −79.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	95.1%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	29.5%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	47.3%	8.8%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	41.6%	9.6%	33.0%	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	6.6%	12.8%	3.8%	—	11.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	4.4%	1.8%	5.4%	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	3.8%	2.2%	31.6%	—	23.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	85.2%	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	10.4%	2.7%	69.2%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	21.4%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	5.9%	7.0%	93.2%	—	26.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	6.9%	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	4.3%	8.3%	12.4%	—	29.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	5.9%	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	5.9%	25.5%	14.2%	—	59.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	3.5%	95.1%	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	3.0%	24.3%	9.0%	—	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.8%	7.6%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	3.8%	5.0%	2.6%	100.0%	5.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	3.1%	2.2%	95.5%	—	3.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	2.9%	1.9%	0.7%	18.3%	2.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.9%	3.1%	0.6%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.8%	1.6%	0.5%	100.0%	2.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.3%	1.3%	0.6%	—	3.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.1%	1.2%	1.0%	13.4%	2.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.3%	0.8%	0.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%	1.3%	1.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%	0.5%	—	1.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.5%	1.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	45%	59.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2061
NWS forecast	44%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954
IFS Ensemble	41%	59.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1706
ICON	4%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0016
IFS HRES	3%	66.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0007
AIFS Single	<1%	68.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	69.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 58°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-LE58
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Washington stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 58°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗