KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≤ 58°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 20.6¢Risks 20.65u

WN2NO 79.3¢Risks 79.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.35u · WN2 −79.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:48:55+00:00	6.7%	14.8%	0.6%	21.2%	3.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	6.7%	14.8%	0.6%	21.2%	3.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:18+00:00	6.7%	14.8%	0.6%	21.2%	3.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:03+00:00	6.7%	14.8%	0.6%	21.2%	3.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	6.7%	14.8%	0.6%	21.2%	3.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:05+00:00	6.7%	14.8%	0.5%	21.2%	3.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	6.7%	22.0%	0.5%	21.2%	3.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:05+00:00	6.7%	22.0%	0.5%	21.2%	3.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	2.0%	22.0%	0.5%	21.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	2.0%	22.0%	0.5%	21.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:40+00:00	2.0%	18.7%	0.5%	21.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	2.0%	18.7%	0.5%	21.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	2.0%	18.7%	0.1%	21.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	2.0%	18.7%	0.1%	21.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	2.0%	18.7%	0.1%	21.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	2.0%	18.7%	0.1%	21.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	5.1%	18.7%	0.1%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	5.1%	18.7%	0.1%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	5.1%	18.7%	0.1%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	5.1%	18.7%	0.1%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	5.1%	18.7%	0.6%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	5.1%	18.7%	0.6%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	5.1%	18.7%	0.6%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	2.3%	18.7%	0.6%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	2.3%	18.7%	0.6%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	2.3%	18.7%	0.6%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	2.3%	18.7%	0.6%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T04:23:51+00:00	2.3%	18.7%	0.6%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	2.3%	18.7%	0.4%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	2.3%	18.7%	0.4%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	2.3%	18.7%	0.4%	14.5%	3.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	4.4%	18.7%	0.4%	14.5%	3.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	4.4%	18.7%	0.4%	14.5%	3.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	4.4%	18.7%	0.4%	14.5%	3.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	4.4%	18.7%	0.4%	14.5%	3.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	4.4%	18.7%	0.4%	14.5%	3.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:04+00:00	4.4%	42.0%	0.8%	14.5%	3.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	4.4%	42.0%	0.8%	14.5%	3.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	4.4%	42.0%	0.8%	14.5%	3.7%
2026-10-16T13:27:59+00:00	2.6%	42.0%	0.8%	40.3%	3.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	2.6%	42.0%	0.8%	40.3%	3.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	2.6%	41.3%	0.8%	40.3%	3.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	2.6%	41.3%	0.8%	40.3%	3.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	2.6%	41.3%	0.8%	40.3%	3.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	2.6%	41.3%	0.1%	40.3%	3.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	2.6%	41.3%	0.1%	40.3%	3.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	2.6%	41.3%	0.1%	40.3%	3.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	1.3%	41.3%	0.1%	40.3%	2.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	1.3%	41.3%	0.1%	40.3%	2.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	1.3%	41.3%	0.1%	40.3%	2.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	1.3%	41.3%	0.1%	40.3%	2.2%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	1.3%	41.3%	0.1%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	1.3%	41.3%	0.1%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	1.3%	41.3%	0.1%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	1.3%	41.3%	0.1%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	0.8%	41.3%	0.1%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	0.8%	41.3%	0.1%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	0.8%	41.3%	0.1%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	0.8%	41.3%	0.1%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-17T04:40:57+00:00	0.8%	41.3%	0.1%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00	0.8%	41.3%	0.1%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	0.8%	41.3%	0.0%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	0.8%	41.3%	0.0%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00	0.7%	41.3%	0.0%	2.7%	4.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	0.7%	41.3%	0.0%	2.7%	4.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00	0.7%	41.3%	0.0%	2.7%	4.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	0.7%	41.3%	0.0%	2.7%	4.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	0.7%	41.3%	0.0%	2.7%	4.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	45%	59.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2061
NWS forecast	44%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954
IFS Ensemble	41%	59.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1706
ICON	4%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0016
IFS HRES	3%	66.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0007
AIFS Single	<1%	68.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	69.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 58°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-LE58
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Washington stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 58°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗