KDCA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

94%

66%

62%

51%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.0¢Risks 74.95u

EPSNO 25.0¢Risks 25.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.05u · EPS −25.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	—	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	—	—	—	60.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	50.0%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	69.4%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	11.8%	74.0%	—	—	56.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	77.0%	70.8%	19.4%	—	57.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	74.6%	62.3%	31.7%	—	40.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	78.4%	67.0%	11.4%	—	30.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	73.2%	51.6%	54.8%	—	35.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	4.3%	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	82.7%	57.5%	41.7%	—	30.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	68.9%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	81.6%	57.0%	45.6%	—	13.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	76.5%	55.4%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	74.1%	65.3%	79.7%	—	50.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	65.7%	62.1%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	66.1%	58.7%	67.0%	—	55.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.7%	58.9%	64.7%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	51.0%	65.1%	56.1%	0.0%	45.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	55.3%	65.5%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	70.8%	68.9%	69.9%	—	43.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	67.5%	62.2%	0.1%	—	44.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	69.0%	69.0%	60.4%	0.0%	44.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	76.6%	72.7%	63.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	80.1%	77.3%	69.2%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	73.1%	78.1%	61.5%	—	46.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	76.0%	80.9%	58.0%	52.7%	44.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	86.8%	84.5%	66.2%	—	52.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	93.7%	89.8%	74.4%	73.2%	55.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	91.4%	71.5%	—	45.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	74.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	73.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	66%	69.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	68.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	67.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗