KDCA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

94%

66%

62%

51%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.0¢Risks 74.95u

EPSNO 25.0¢Risks 25.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.05u · EPS −25.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:00+00:00	69.2%	33.6%	84.3%	39.8%	84.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	69.2%	33.6%	84.3%	39.8%	84.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	69.2%	33.6%	84.3%	39.8%	84.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	69.2%	33.6%	76.7%	39.8%	84.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	69.2%	33.6%	76.7%	39.8%	84.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	69.2%	33.6%	76.7%	39.8%	84.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	90.0%	33.6%	76.7%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	90.0%	33.6%	76.7%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	90.0%	33.6%	76.7%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	90.0%	33.6%	76.7%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	90.0%	33.6%	76.7%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	90.0%	33.6%	83.8%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	90.0%	33.6%	83.8%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	90.0%	33.6%	83.8%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	88.6%	33.6%	83.8%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	88.6%	33.6%	83.8%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	88.6%	33.6%	83.8%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-15T04:01:47+00:00	88.6%	33.6%	83.8%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	88.6%	33.6%	83.8%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	88.6%	33.6%	93.6%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	88.6%	33.6%	93.6%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	88.6%	33.6%	93.6%	51.8%	86.2%
2026-10-15T07:48:56+00:00	55.6%	33.6%	93.6%	60.9%	83.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	55.6%	33.6%	93.6%	60.9%	83.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:18+00:00	55.6%	33.6%	93.6%	60.9%	83.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:03+00:00	55.6%	33.6%	93.6%	60.9%	83.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	55.6%	33.6%	93.6%	60.9%	83.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:05+00:00	55.6%	33.6%	92.1%	60.9%	83.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	55.6%	36.0%	92.1%	60.9%	83.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:05+00:00	55.6%	36.0%	92.1%	60.9%	83.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	80.7%	36.0%	92.1%	60.9%	83.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	80.7%	36.0%	92.1%	60.9%	83.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:51+00:00	90.8%	39.7%	93.7%	69.8%	88.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	90.8%	39.7%	93.1%	69.8%	88.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	90.8%	39.7%	93.1%	69.8%	88.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	90.8%	39.7%	93.1%	69.8%	88.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	49.1%	39.7%	93.1%	69.8%	88.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	49.1%	39.7%	93.1%	69.8%	88.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	49.1%	39.7%	93.1%	69.8%	88.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	49.1%	39.7%	93.1%	69.8%	88.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	49.1%	39.7%	93.1%	69.8%	88.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:04+00:00	49.1%	22.0%	89.7%	69.8%	88.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	49.1%	22.0%	89.7%	69.8%	88.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	49.1%	22.0%	89.7%	69.8%	88.4%
2026-10-16T13:27:59+00:00	92.5%	22.0%	89.7%	66.3%	88.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	92.5%	22.1%	89.7%	66.3%	88.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	92.5%	22.7%	89.7%	66.3%	88.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	92.5%	22.7%	89.7%	66.3%	88.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	92.5%	22.7%	89.7%	66.3%	88.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	92.5%	22.7%	98.1%	66.3%	88.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	92.5%	22.7%	98.1%	66.3%	88.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	92.5%	22.7%	98.1%	66.3%	88.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	95.8%	22.7%	98.1%	66.3%	82.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	95.8%	22.7%	98.1%	66.3%	82.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	95.8%	22.7%	98.1%	66.3%	82.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	95.8%	22.7%	98.1%	66.3%	82.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	95.8%	22.7%	98.1%	68.4%	82.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	95.8%	22.7%	99.2%	68.4%	82.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	95.8%	22.7%	99.2%	68.4%	82.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	95.8%	22.7%	99.2%	68.4%	82.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	96.2%	22.7%	99.2%	68.4%	82.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	96.2%	22.7%	99.2%	68.4%	82.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	96.2%	22.7%	99.2%	68.4%	82.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	96.2%	22.7%	99.2%	68.4%	82.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	99.3%	63.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	99.3%	63.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	99.3%	63.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	99.3%	63.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	99.3%	63.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	99.3%	63.1%	72.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	94.9%	68.4%	99.3%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	94.9%	68.4%	99.3%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	94.9%	68.4%	99.3%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	94.9%	68.4%	99.3%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	94.9%	68.4%	98.8%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	94.9%	68.4%	98.8%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	94.9%	68.4%	98.8%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	94.9%	68.4%	98.8%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	98.8%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	98.8%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	98.8%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	98.8%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	99.3%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	99.3%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	99.3%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	95.4%	68.4%	99.3%	56.2%	58.0%
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	96.0%	68.4%	99.3%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	96.0%	68.4%	99.3%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	96.0%	68.4%	99.3%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	96.0%	68.4%	99.3%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	96.0%	54.2%	99.4%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	96.0%	54.2%	99.4%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	96.0%	54.2%	99.4%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	96.0%	54.2%	99.4%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	95.1%	54.1%	99.4%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:31+00:00	95.1%	54.1%	99.4%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	95.1%	46.2%	99.4%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	95.1%	46.2%	99.4%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:03+00:00	95.1%	46.2%	99.2%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	95.1%	46.2%	99.2%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	95.1%	46.2%	99.2%	55.8%	68.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	94.5%	46.2%	99.2%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	94.5%	46.2%	99.2%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	94.5%	46.2%	99.2%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	94.5%	46.2%	99.2%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	94.5%	46.2%	99.2%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	94.5%	46.2%	99.2%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	94.5%	46.2%	99.2%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	94.5%	46.2%	99.2%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	94.8%	46.2%	99.2%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	94.8%	46.2%	99.2%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	94.8%	46.2%	99.2%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:02+00:00	94.8%	46.2%	99.2%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:20+00:00	94.8%	46.2%	99.2%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T05:16:54+00:00	94.8%	46.2%	99.3%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	94.8%	46.2%	99.3%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	94.8%	46.2%	99.3%	58.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:36+00:00	94.5%	46.2%	99.3%	61.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	94.5%	46.2%	99.3%	61.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	94.5%	46.2%	99.3%	61.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	94.5%	46.2%	99.3%	61.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:55+00:00	94.5%	46.2%	99.3%	61.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:36+00:00	94.5%	51.2%	98.7%	61.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	94.5%	51.2%	98.7%	61.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	94.5%	51.2%	98.7%	61.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	93.9%	51.2%	98.7%	61.7%	65.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	94.0%	51.2%	98.7%	61.7%	66.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	74.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	73.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	66%	69.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	68.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	67.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗